Development of a new dynamic model for Health Workforce Planning


In accordance with internationally used methods the planning model is based on two columns: the prognosis of offer of personnel and of its demand. Starting from an extensive analysis of the actual state of personnel in specific health professions, as well as of the effectiveness of care, the first part of the model amounts to a prognosis of offers. Therefore future departures of personnel (retirements, career changes, emigrations) on the one hand and future staff additions (newly trained personnel, immigration) on the other are modelled. The second step includes the modelling of future personnel need. Apart from demographic changes (particularly the amount and the aging of the population), also epidemiological and technical developments (e.g. the increase of chronic illnesses, new possibilities of diagnosis), structural changes in the health care system (e.g. the strengthening of primary care) and the changing of legal and social conditions (e.g. an amendment of the Hospital Labour Law, an increase of part time jobs) has to be considered. Comparing the prognosis of personnel offers with the one of their demands, it can be seen clearly, if personnel gaps of the regarded professions are to be expected and to what amount. These results constitute the basis to develop qualified recommendations for actions, for the offers as well as for the demands.


On the basis of an extensive research on internationally utilized methods in the area of Health Workforce Planning and of test calculations a simulation model that is based on individuals was chosen as modelling method. Tis model interacts with the user through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) that was especially developed for this issue. It enables non-technicians as well to change model Parameters and to execute scenario calculations. The GUI furthermore allows the visualisation of (parts of) the outcomes, the export of outcome tables, as well as the creation of reports. The modelling is realised in Python, the GUI in C#. The results are depicted in Excel.